Monthly Archives: April 2013

How Acknowledging Our Ignorance Can Improve Dispute Resolution

Research being conducted at the University of Pennsylvania and Berkeley, among other places, shows that reputed “experts” or “pundits” whose predictions and forecasts form the basis of policy and strategic decisions are, quite simply, wrong about as often as they are right. There is no material statistical support for the accuracy of expert forecasts. The following quote from a terrific article by Dan Gardner and Philip Tetlock, entitled “Overcoming Our Aversion To Acknowledging Our Ignorance” (http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/11/dan-gardner-and-philip-tetlock/overcoming-our-aversion-to-acknowledging-our-ignorance/) gives a trenchant summary: Despite massive amounts of money, effort, and ingenuity, our ability... Read More